Tuesday, October 6 · our forecast odds · issued Sun 3:00 PM ET · 4 nonstops

Tue, Oct 6 looks like a normal day here: all 4 nonstops are 7–15% likely to arrive 15+ min late.

Safest bet that day AA 2081 DFW 08:29 → SMF 10:30 · 7% chance 15+ min late · usually 92% on time Riskiest AA 651 DFW 16:43 → SMF 18:20 · 15% chance 15+ min late · usually 57% on time

Against a calm day 11% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 13% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop on Tue, Oct 6

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


AA 2081 American Flight history →	DFW 08:29	SMF 10:30	7%	3%	0.6%	92%
AA 2078 American Flight history →	DFW 12:05	SMF 13:41	11%	5%	0.6%	79%
AA 509 American Flight history →	DFW 22:30	SMF 23:59	12%	3%	0.7%	44%
AA 651 American Flight history →	DFW 16:43	SMF 18:20	15%	6%	0.6%	57%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Tue, Oct 6 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON