Tuesday, October 6 · our forecast odds · issued Sun 10:00 PM ET · 8 nonstops

Tue, Oct 6 looks like a normal day here: all 8 nonstops are 6–13% likely to arrive 15+ min late.

Safest bet that day AA 1686 DFW 07:05 → SNA 08:28 · 6% chance 15+ min late · usually 90% on time Riskiest AA 3223 DFW 16:24 → SNA 17:51 · 13% chance 15+ min late · usually 80% on time

Against a calm day 9% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 13% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop on Tue, Oct 6

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


AA 1686 American Flight history →	DFW 07:05	SNA 08:28	6%	3%	0.7%	90%
AA 2114 American Flight history →	DFW 08:24	SNA 10:03	8%	3%	0.7%	78%
AA 1939 American	DFW 09:37	SNA 11:15	8%	3%	0.7%	no record
AA 2465 American Flight history →	DFW 12:25	SNA 13:59	9%	3%	0.7%	84%
AA 1933 American	DFW 13:14	SNA 14:38	9%	4%	0.7%	no record
AA 2659 American Flight history →	DFW 14:36	SNA 15:55	11%	3%	0.7%	80%
AA 806 American Flight history →	DFW 19:15	SNA 20:22	11%	3%	0.8%	68%
AA 3223 American Flight history →	DFW 16:24	SNA 17:51	13%	3%	0.7%	80%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Tue, Oct 6 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON