Today: only flights still to leave (it’s 12:36 am at Dallas-Fort Worth)

Tuesday, October 6 · our forecast odds · issued Tue 12:00 AM ET · connections flying that day

Today: MQ 4072 at 13:08 is the safest bet, 15% chance of being 15+ min late; the others run 28%.

Nonstops today


MQ 4072 Envoy	DFW 13:08	SRQ 17:05	15%	5%	1.9%	no record
AA 2679 American Flight history →	DFW 12:30	SRQ 16:02	28%	10%	2.7%	66%

Best connections today, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Sarasota/Bradenton on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Sarasota/Bradenton is 1 h ahead of Dallas-Fort Worth). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


Delta Details →	DFW 05:50 → ATL 08:58DL 401	2h 18m Atlanta	ATL 11:16 → SRQ 12:54DL 3104	6h 04m	100%	89%
Delta Details →	DFW 16:21 → ATL 19:28DL 921	2h 17m Atlanta	ATL 21:45 → SRQ 23:22DL 2997	6h 01m	100%	85%
Delta Details →	DFW 11:29 → ATL 14:37DL 961	3h 36m Atlanta	ATL 18:13 → SRQ 19:50DL 3109	7h 21m	100%	84%
Delta Details →	DFW 10:06 → ATL 13:25DL 839	1h 30m Atlanta	ATL 14:55 → SRQ 16:32DL 3115	5h 26m	97%	83%
Delta Details →	DFW 13:50 → ATL 17:14DL 414	2h 45m Atlanta	ATL 19:59 → SRQ 21:36DL 1057	6h 46m	98%	82%
United Details →	DFW 07:08 → ORD 09:50UA 1695	1h 20m Chicago	ORD 11:10 → SRQ 15:12UA 2287	7h 04m	97%	81%
American Details →	DFW 11:55 → CLT 15:36AA 1696	2h 56m Charlotte	CLT 18:32 → SRQ 20:23AA 5348 · flown by PSA	7h 28m	98%	78%
American Details →	DFW 04:52 → CLT 08:24AA 1091	2h 12m Charlotte	CLT 10:36 → SRQ 12:41AA 1452	6h 49m	95%	77%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Tue, Oct 6 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON