Tuesday, October 6 · our forecast odds · issued Sun 2:00 PM ET · 7 nonstops

Tue, Oct 6: MQ 4074 at 10:19 is the safest bet, 7% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 15–20%.

Safest bet that day MQ 4074 DFW 10:19 → STL 12:12 · 7% chance 15+ min late Riskiest AA 2487 DFW 17:13 → STL 19:00 · 20% chance 15+ min late · usually 50% on time

Against a calm day 14% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 15% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop on Tue, Oct 6

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


MQ 4074 Envoy	DFW 10:19	STL 12:12	7%	2%	0.7%	no record
AA 3333 American	DFW 07:34	STL 09:34	9%	3%	0.6%	no record
AA 3944 American flown by Envoy Flight history →	DFW 14:51	STL 16:41	11%	2%	0.6%	91%
AA 1445 American	DFW 21:53	STL 23:51	15%	5%	0.7%	no record
AA 1363 American Flight history →	DFW 12:47	STL 14:40	16%	5%	0.6%	57%
AA 2761 American Flight history →	DFW 16:11	STL 18:08	17%	6%	0.7%	56%
AA 2487 American Flight history →	DFW 17:13	STL 19:00	20%	6%	0.7%	50%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Tue, Oct 6 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON