Tuesday, October 6 · our forecast odds · issued Mon 7:00 AM ET · connections flying that day

Tomorrow: American via Miami, leaving 05:00, is the safest bet: 84% chance of reaching Charlotte Amalie on time.

Best connections that day, one ticket

Ranked by chance you reach Charlotte Amalie on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Charlotte Amalie is 1 h ahead of Dallas-Fort Worth). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


American Details →	DFW 05:00 → MIA 08:55AA 3189	1h 29m Miami	MIA 10:24 → STT 13:19AA 943	7h 19m	99%	84%
Delta Details →	DFW 05:20 → ATL 08:34DL 401	1h 20m Atlanta	ATL 09:54 → STT 13:38DL 1899	7h 18m	99%	78%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Tue, Oct 6 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON