Tuesday, October 6 · our forecast odds · issued Mon 6:00 AM ET · connections flying that day

Tomorrow: one nonstop, AA 421 at 19:25, with a 22% chance of arriving 15+ min late.

Nonstops that day


AA 421 American Flight history →	DFW 19:25	SYR 23:40	22%	6%	0.7%	58%

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Syracuse on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Syracuse is 1 h ahead of Dallas-Fort Worth). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


Delta Details →	DFW 06:45 → ATL 09:59DL 893	2h 38m Atlanta	ATL 12:37 → SYR 14:48DL 2991	7h 03m	99%	90%
Delta Details →	DFW 10:06 → ATL 13:25DL 839	2h 18m Atlanta	ATL 15:43 → SYR 17:59DL 2690	6h 53m	99%	88%
American Details →	DFW 04:53 → CLT 08:28AA 1091	2h 08m Charlotte	CLT 10:36 → SYR 12:36AA 2730	6h 43m	98%	85%
American Details →	DFW 07:00 → CLT 10:44AA 317	3h 05m Charlotte	CLT 13:49 → SYR 15:40AA 1950	7h 40m	100%	84%
United Details →	DFW 12:00 → ORD 14:42UA 1401	3h 27m Chicago	ORD 18:09 → SYR 21:09UA 2481	8h 09m	99%	83%
American Details →	DFW 07:30 → PHL 11:52AA 415	1h 20m Philadelphia	PHL 13:12 → SYR 14:34AA 5924 · flown by Piedmont	6h 04m	96%	82%
American Details →	DFW 11:55 → CLT 15:36AA 1696	3h 00m Charlotte	CLT 18:36 → SYR 20:30AA 1946	7h 35m	99%	79%
United Details →	DFW 13:44 → DEN 14:55UA 248	3h 15m Denver	DEN 18:10 → SYR 23:44UA 2350	9h 00m	98%	79%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Tue, Oct 6 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON