Tuesday, October 6 · our forecast odds · issued Sun 12:00 PM ET · 7 nonstops

Tue, Oct 6: AA 4063 at 07:10 is the safest bet, 6% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 20–22%.

Safest bet that day AA 4063 DFW 07:10 → TUL 08:35 · 6% chance 15+ min late · usually 95% on time Riskiest AA 531 DFW 18:23 → TUL 19:34 · 22% chance 15+ min late · usually 62% on time

Against a calm day 16% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 15% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop on Tue, Oct 6

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


AA 4063 American flown by Envoy Flight history →	DFW 07:10	TUL 08:35	6%	1%	0.7%	95%
AA 2348 American Flight history →	DFW 08:32	TUL 09:48	11%	3%	0.7%	80%
AA 2352 American Flight history →	DFW 10:53	TUL 12:09	14%	4%	0.7%	87%
AA 2851 American Flight history →	DFW 14:14	TUL 15:29	17%	6%	0.7%	85%
AA 2830 American	DFW 16:47	TUL 18:04	20%	6%	0.7%	no record
AA 2014 American Flight history →	DFW 20:53	TUL 22:05	22%	6%	0.7%	31%
AA 531 American Flight history →	DFW 18:23	TUL 19:34	22%	6%	0.7%	62%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Tue, Oct 6 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON