Tuesday, October 6 · our forecast odds · issued Sun 3:00 PM ET · 8 nonstops

Tue, Oct 6: AA 2187 at 10:36 is the safest bet, 13% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 20–27%.

Safest bet that day AA 2187 DFW 10:36 → TUS 11:14 · 13% chance 15+ min late Riskiest AA 1207 DFW 19:36 → TUS 19:52 · 27% chance 15+ min late · usually 58% on time

Against a calm day 19% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 19% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop on Tue, Oct 6

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


AA 2187 American	DFW 10:36	TUS 11:14	13%	4%	0.6%	no record
AA 1014 American Flight history →	DFW 08:20	TUS 08:38	13%	3%	0.7%	83%
AA 2537 American	DFW 14:00	TUS 14:36	17%	6%	0.7%	no record
AA 2926 American Flight history →	DFW 12:11	TUS 12:26	17%	6%	0.6%	68%
AA 3140 American	DFW 17:20	TUS 17:57	20%	6%	0.7%	no record
AA 1580 American	DFW 21:32	TUS 22:03	22%	8%	0.7%	no record
AA 584 American Flight history →	DFW 14:46	TUS 15:01	23%	7%	0.7%	60%
AA 1207 American Flight history →	DFW 19:36	TUS 19:52	27%	10%	0.7%	58%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Tue, Oct 6 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON