tailodds FORECAST
Tickets
Any day
Tuesday, October 6 · our forecast odds · issued Mon 2:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Tomorrow: one nonstop, MQ 4199 at 12:45, with a 13% chance of arriving 15+ min late.

Nonstops that day

All 1 nonstop →
MQ 4199 Envoy DFW 12:45 TVC 16:28 13% 3% 0.7% no record

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Traverse City on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Traverse City is 1 h ahead of Dallas-Fort Worth). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.
AmericanDetails → DFW 06:06 → ORD 08:35AA 2999 3h 37m Chicago ORD 12:12 → TVC 14:26AA 4307 · flown by Envoy 7h 20m 100% 85%
UnitedDetails → DFW 05:45 → DEN 06:53UA 773 2h 45m Denver DEN 09:38 → TVC 14:19UA 2420 7h 34m 100% 83%
DeltaDetails → DFW 06:55 → MSP 09:23DL 1276 1h 01m Minneapolis MSP 10:24 → TVC 12:54DL 3995 · flown by SkyWest 4h 59m 94% 83%
DeltaDetails → DFW 05:20 → DTW 09:04DL 2183 1h 18m Detroit DTW 10:22 → TVC 11:33DL 3976 · flown by SkyWest 5h 13m 98% 83%
AmericanDetails → DFW 04:50 → CLT 08:22AA 1091 2h 27m Charlotte CLT 10:49 → TVC 13:06AA 5575 · flown by PSA 7h 16m 98% 83%
AmericanDetails → DFW 07:00 → ORD 09:42AA 1106 2h 04m Chicago ORD 11:46 → TVC 14:04AA 6368 · flown by SkyWest 6h 04m 98% 81%
UnitedDetails → DFW 14:15 → ORD 16:57UA 2160 2h 16m Chicago ORD 19:13 → TVC 21:23UA 677 6h 08m 94% 64%
UnitedDetails → DFW 17:47 → ORD 20:30UA 1564 1h 04m Chicago ORD 21:34 → TVC 23:46UA 2071 4h 59m 83% 60%
How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Tue, Oct 6 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON