Tuesday, October 6 · our forecast odds · issued Sun 9:00 PM ET · 5 nonstops

Tue, Oct 6 looks like a normal day here: all 5 nonstops are 7–16% likely to arrive 15+ min late.

Safest bet that day AA 5593 DFW 07:51 → TYS 11:13 · 7% chance 15+ min late · usually 86% on time Riskiest AA 1081 DFW 20:41 → TYS 23:51 · 16% chance 15+ min late · usually 51% on time

Against a calm day 11% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 12% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop on Tue, Oct 6

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


AA 5593 American flown by PSA Flight history →	DFW 07:51	TYS 11:13	7%	3%	0.7%	86%
AA 2544 American Flight history →	DFW 10:35	TYS 13:48	8%	3%	0.8%	82%
AA 5346 American flown by PSA Flight history →	DFW 17:32	TYS 20:47	9%	4%	0.7%	73%
AA 2550 American Flight history →	DFW 13:22	TYS 16:38	13%	4%	0.8%	67%
AA 1081 American Flight history →	DFW 20:41	TYS 23:51	16%	5%	0.8%	51%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Tue, Oct 6 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON