Tuesday, October 6 · our forecast odds · issued Mon 4:00 PM ET · 4 nonstops

Tomorrow: AA 3089 at 09:38 is the safest bet, 19% chance of being 15+ min late; the others run 20–30%.

Safest bet that day AA 3089 DFW 09:38 → VPS 11:37 · 19% chance 15+ min late Riskiest AA 2673 DFW 16:37 → VPS 18:38 · 30% chance 15+ min late · usually 49% on time

Against a calm day 23% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 18% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop on Tue, Oct 6

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


AA 3089 American	DFW 09:38	VPS 11:37	19%	5%	2.1%	no record
AA 2460 American Flight history →	DFW 09:30	VPS 11:28	20%	4%	2.1%	74%
AA 2501 American Flight history →	DFW 12:46	VPS 14:43	23%	6%	2.1%	66%
AA 2673 American Flight history →	DFW 16:37	VPS 18:38	30%	8%	2.1%	49%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Tue, Oct 6 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON