Tuesday, October 6 · our forecast odds · issued Mon 12:00 AM ET · 9 nonstops

Tomorrow looks like a normal day here: all 9 nonstops are 6–15% likely to arrive 15+ min late.

Safest bet that day MQ 3603 DFW 08:21 → XNA 09:48 · 6% chance 15+ min late Riskiest AA 1197 DFW 21:29 → XNA 23:03 · 15% chance 15+ min late · usually 63% on time

Against a calm day 10% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 9% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop on Tue, Oct 6

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


MQ 3603 Envoy	DFW 08:21	XNA 09:48	6%	2%	0.6%	no record
MQ 4111 Envoy	DFW 07:25	XNA 08:54	6%	2%	0.7%	no record
MQ 3562 Envoy	DFW 11:36	XNA 13:03	8%	2%	0.6%	no record
AA 3803 American flown by Envoy Flight history →	DFW 13:11	XNA 14:30	8%	2%	0.6%	91%
AA 3840 American flown by Envoy Flight history →	DFW 14:29	XNA 15:46	9%	3%	0.7%	79%
AA 3693 American flown by Envoy Flight history →	DFW 16:38	XNA 18:00	10%	3%	0.7%	77%
MQ 3605 Envoy	DFW 18:09	XNA 19:26	11%	3%	0.7%	no record
AA 2025 American	DFW 09:58	XNA 11:21	15%	6%	0.7%	no record
AA 1197 American Flight history →	DFW 21:29	XNA 23:03	15%	6%	0.8%	63%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Tue, Oct 6 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON