Tuesday, October 6 · our forecast odds · issued Mon 10:00 AM ET · 4 nonstops

Tomorrow looks like a normal day here: all 4 nonstops are 4–8% likely to arrive 15+ min late.

Safest bet that day DL 2727 DSM 05:41 → ATL 08:48 · 4% chance 15+ min late · usually 94% on time Riskiest DL 2094 DSM 14:25 → ATL 17:38 · 8% chance 15+ min late · usually 84% on time

Against a calm day 6% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 6% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop on Tue, Oct 6

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


DL 2727 Delta Flight history →	DSM 05:41	ATL 08:48	4%	4%	0.6%	94%
DL 1704 Delta Flight history →	DSM 11:30	ATL 14:43	6%	3%	0.6%	90%
DL 2086 Delta Flight history →	DSM 18:37	ATL 21:59	7%	4%	0.6%	85%
DL 2094 Delta Flight history →	DSM 14:25	ATL 17:38	8%	3%	0.6%	84%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Tue, Oct 6 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON