Tuesday, October 6 · our forecast odds · issued Mon 5:00 AM ET · connections flying that day

Tomorrow looks like a normal day here: all 2 nonstops are 6–13% likely to arrive 15+ min late.

Nonstops that day


AA 2854 American Flight history →	DSM 07:04	CLT 10:30	6%	3%	0.7%	90%
AA 2962 American Flight history →	DSM 13:19	CLT 16:29	13%	3%	0.7%	75%

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Charlotte on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Charlotte is 1 h ahead of Des Moines). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


United Details →	DSM 07:40 → ORD 09:12UA 2668	1h 14m Chicago	ORD 10:26 → CLT 13:50UA 3450 · flown by Republic	5h 10m	97%	91%
Delta Details →	DSM 05:41 → ATL 08:48DL 2727	3h 32m Atlanta	ATL 12:20 → CLT 13:31DL 2157	6h 50m	99%	91%
American Details →	DSM 07:12 → LGA 11:01AA 4795 · flown by Republic	3h 30m New York	LGA 14:31 → CLT 16:53AA 2033	8h 41m	99%	91%
Delta Details →	DSM 11:30 → ATL 14:43DL 1704	3h 17m Atlanta	ATL 18:00 → CLT 19:21DL 3158	6h 51m	99%	89%
American Details →	DSM 07:06 → ORD 08:54AA 4383 · flown by Republic	2h 52m Chicago	ORD 11:46 → CLT 14:43AA 3021	6h 37m	100%	88%
Delta Details →	DSM 10:54 → MSP 12:06DL 4998 · flown by Endeavor	2h 24m Minneapolis	MSP 14:30 → CLT 18:02DL 2820	6h 08m	98%	88%
Delta Details →	DSM 06:50 → MSP 08:12DL 5402 · flown by Endeavor	2h 18m Minneapolis	MSP 10:30 → CLT 13:57DL 2819	6h 07m	93%	86%
Delta Details →	DSM 06:08 → DTW 08:59DL 5414 · flown by Endeavor	1h 38m Detroit	DTW 10:37 → CLT 12:24DL 2684	5h 16m	92%	86%
Tight connection: often missed
Delta Details →	DSM 18:03 → MSP 19:15DL 5020 · flown by Endeavor	59m Minneapolis	MSP 20:14 → CLT 23:44DL 2929	4h 41m	73%	67%
Delta Details →	DSM 10:25 → DTW 13:14DL 5048 · flown by Endeavor	51m Detroit	DTW 14:05 → CLT 15:55DL 1429	4h 30m	66%	62%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Tue, Oct 6 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON