Tuesday, October 6 · our forecast odds · issued Mon 7:00 AM ET · 8 nonstops

Tomorrow looks like a normal day here: all 8 nonstops are 6–16% likely to arrive 15+ min late.

Safest bet that day WN 1503 DSM 07:07 → DEN 07:56 · 6% chance 15+ min late Riskiest WN 1545 DSM 18:52 → DEN 19:41 · 16% chance 15+ min late

Against a calm day 9% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 8% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop on Tue, Oct 6

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


WN 1503 Southwest	DSM 07:07	DEN 07:56	6%	1%	0.6%	no record
WN 1712 Southwest	DSM 07:15	DEN 08:11	6%	1%	0.6%	no record
OO 5950 SkyWest	DSM 11:33	DEN 12:42	6%	3%	0.6%	no record
UA 1348 United	DSM 05:38	DEN 06:26	7%	2%	0.6%	no record
UA 1521 United Flight history →	DSM 09:14	DEN 10:20	8%	3%	0.6%	88%
UA 2064 United	DSM 13:12	DEN 14:21	8%	3%	0.6%	no record
UA 1781 United Flight history →	DSM 17:17	DEN 18:22	15%	5%	0.6%	66%
WN 1545 Southwest	DSM 18:52	DEN 19:41	16%	3%	0.6%	no record

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Tue, Oct 6 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON