Tuesday, October 6 · our forecast odds · issued Sun 10:00 PM ET · 4 nonstops

Tomorrow looks like a normal day here: all 4 nonstops are 7–17% likely to arrive 15+ min late.

Safest bet that day AA 2326 DSM 06:33 → DFW 08:37 · 7% chance 15+ min late · usually 85% on time Riskiest AA 1664 DSM 15:56 → DFW 18:00 · 17% chance 15+ min late · usually 56% on time

Against a calm day 10% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 11% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop on Tue, Oct 6

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


AA 2326 American Flight history →	DSM 06:33	DFW 08:37	7%	5%	0.8%	85%
OH 5582 PSA	DSM 10:01	DFW 12:03	8%	4%	0.7%	no record
AA 3930 American flown by Envoy Flight history →	DSM 18:16	DFW 20:12	9%	2%	0.7%	91%
AA 1664 American Flight history →	DSM 15:56	DFW 18:00	17%	6%	0.7%	56%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Tue, Oct 6 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON