Tuesday, October 6 · our forecast odds · issued Mon 12:00 PM ET · 3 nonstops

Tomorrow looks like a normal day here: all 3 nonstops are 4–7% likely to arrive 15+ min late.

Safest bet that day DL 5414 DSM 05:54 → DTW 08:43 · 4% chance 15+ min late · usually 88% on time Riskiest 9E 5144 DSM 17:22 → DTW 20:11 · 7% chance 15+ min late

Against a calm day 6% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 6% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop on Tue, Oct 6

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


DL 5414 Delta flown by Endeavor Flight history →	DSM 05:54	DTW 08:43	4%	2%	0.7%	88%
DL 5058 Delta flown by Endeavor Flight history →	DSM 10:15	DTW 13:03	6%	2%	0.6%	80%
9E 5144 Endeavor	DSM 17:22	DTW 20:11	7%	2%	0.7%	no record

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Tue, Oct 6 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON