tailodds FORECAST
Tickets
Any day
Tuesday, October 6 · our forecast odds · issued Mon 7:00 AM ET · connections flying that day

Tomorrow: one nonstop, UA 1982 at 06:20, with a 6% chance of arriving 15+ min late.

Nonstops that day

All 2 nonstops →
UA 1982 United Flight history → DSM 06:20 IAH 08:48 6% 3% 0.5% 91%
UA 6117 United flown by Mesa no forecast: 12-month record DSM 15:01 IAH 17:25 20% 8% 1.8% 80%

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Houston on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival. Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.
UnitedDetails → DSM 07:40 → ORD 09:12UA 2668 3h 28m Chicago ORD 12:40 → IAH 15:40UA 1448 8h 00m 99% 89%
DeltaDetails → DSM 05:41 → ATL 08:48DL 2727 3h 39m Atlanta ATL 12:27 → IAH 13:33DL 1572 7h 52m 99% 87%
DeltaDetails → DSM 14:25 → ATL 17:38DL 2094 2h 35m Atlanta ATL 20:13 → IAH 21:24DL 1284 6h 59m 99% 87%
DeltaDetails → DSM 10:54 → MSP 12:06DL 4998 · flown by Endeavor 2h 39m Minneapolis MSP 14:45 → IAH 17:39DL 2644 6h 45m 98% 86%
DeltaDetails → DSM 11:30 → ATL 14:43DL 1704 3h 42m Atlanta ATL 18:25 → IAH 19:28DL 2327 7h 58m 99% 86%
DeltaDetails → DSM 06:08 → DTW 08:59DL 5414 · flown by Endeavor 3h 32m Detroit DTW 12:31 → IAH 14:18DL 1307 8h 10m 96% 85%
DeltaDetails → DSM 10:25 → DTW 13:14DL 5048 · flown by Endeavor 2h 41m Detroit DTW 15:55 → IAH 17:37DL 1718 7h 12m 96% 84%
DeltaDetails → DSM 14:45 → MSP 15:58DL 5490 · flown by Endeavor 2h 42m Minneapolis MSP 18:40 → IAH 21:35DL 2683 6h 50m 96% 84%
Tight connection: often missed
UnitedDetails → DSM 15:26 → ORD 16:50UA 312 53m Chicago ORD 17:43 → IAH 20:16UA 1921 4h 50m 75% 60%
How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Tue, Oct 6 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON