tailodds FORECAST
Tickets
Any day
Tuesday, October 6 · our forecast odds · issued Mon 1:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Tomorrow looks like a normal day here: all 2 nonstops are 6–7% likely to arrive 15+ min late.

Nonstops that day

All 2 nonstops →
WN 1833 Southwest DSM 12:10 LAS 13:19 6% 2% 0.5% no record
WN 3086 Southwest DSM 12:51 LAS 13:59 7% 2% 0.5% no record

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Las Vegas on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Las Vegas is 2 h behind Des Moines). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.
UnitedDetails → DSM 06:20 → IAH 08:48UA 1982 3h 07m Houston IAH 11:55 → LAS 13:13UA 1524 8h 53m 99% 90%
DeltaDetails → DSM 17:46 → MSP 19:00DL 5020 · flown by Endeavor 2h 47m Minneapolis MSP 21:47 → LAS 23:10DL 1442 7h 24m 99% 90%
DeltaDetails → DSM 07:03 → MSP 08:18DL 5402 · flown by Endeavor 2h 52m Minneapolis MSP 11:10 → LAS 12:26DL 2238 7h 23m 97% 90%
DeltaDetails → DSM 05:54 → DTW 08:44DL 5414 · flown by Endeavor 3h 31m Detroit DTW 12:15 → LAS 13:28DL 421 9h 34m 99% 89%
DeltaDetails → DSM 14:43 → MSP 16:04DL 5490 · flown by Endeavor 3h 06m Minneapolis MSP 19:10 → LAS 20:29DL 2246 7h 46m 98% 89%
DeltaDetails → DSM 10:15 → DTW 13:04DL 5058 · flown by Endeavor 3h 31m Detroit DTW 16:35 → LAS 17:51DL 766 9h 36m 99% 89%
DeltaDetails → DSM 11:30 → ATL 14:43DL 1704 3h 51m Atlanta ATL 18:34 → LAS 19:49DL 919 10h 19m 99% 89%
UnitedDetails → DSM 07:58 → ORD 09:28UA 2668 1h 46m Chicago ORD 11:14 → LAS 13:18UA 1803 7h 20m 98% 89%
How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Tue, Oct 6 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON