Tuesday, October 6 · our forecast odds · issued Mon 9:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Tomorrow looks like a normal day here: all 2 nonstops are 14–15% likely to arrive 15+ min late.

Nonstops that day


OO 6230 SkyWest	DSM 19:33	LAX 21:20	14%	4%	0.6%	no record
AA 6409 American flown by SkyWest Flight history →	DSM 17:53	LAX 19:46	15%	5%	0.5%	74%

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Los Angeles on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Los Angeles is 2 h behind Des Moines). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


Delta Details →	DSM 05:41 → ATL 08:48DL 2727	3h 52m Atlanta	ATL 12:40 → LAX 14:12DL 895	10h 31m	99%	91%
Delta Details →	DSM 07:04 → MSP 08:20DL 5402 · flown by Endeavor	3h 10m Minneapolis	MSP 11:30 → LAX 13:23DL 2119	8h 19m	98%	91%
Delta Details →	DSM 10:53 → MSP 12:08DL 4998 · flown by Endeavor	2h 46m Minneapolis	MSP 14:54 → LAX 16:38DL 2974	7h 45m	99%	89%
United Details →	DSM 09:14 → DEN 10:20UA 1521	3h 06m Denver	DEN 13:26 → LAX 14:57UA 774	7h 43m	98%	88%
United Details →	DSM 06:20 → IAH 08:48UA 1982	3h 45m Houston	IAH 12:33 → LAX 14:06UA 2460	9h 46m	99%	87%
Delta Details →	DSM 17:46 → MSP 19:00DL 5020 · flown by Endeavor	2h 59m Minneapolis	MSP 21:59 → LAX 23:53DL 2103	8h 07m	99%	87%
Delta Details →	DSM 10:16 → DTW 13:06DL 5058 · flown by Endeavor	2h 44m Detroit	DTW 15:50 → LAX 17:33DL 883	9h 17m	99%	87%
Delta Details →	DSM 11:30 → ATL 14:43DL 1704	3h 15m Atlanta	ATL 17:58 → LAX 19:30DL 500	10h 00m	99%	86%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Tue, Oct 6 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON