Tuesday, October 6 · our forecast odds · issued Mon 5:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Tomorrow looks like a normal day here: all 2 nonstops are 9–16% likely to arrive 15+ min late.

Nonstops that day


AA 4795 American flown by Republic Flight history →	DSM 07:12	LGA 11:01	9%	3%	0.6%	82%
DL 4945 Delta flown by Endeavor Flight history →	DSM 07:08	LGA 10:50	16%	3%	0.7%	75%

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach New York on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (New York is 1 h ahead of Des Moines). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


Delta Details →	DSM 15:45 → MSP 17:00DL 5490 · flown by Endeavor	2h 58m Minneapolis	MSP 19:58 → LGA 23:40DL 2733	6h 55m	98%	89%
Delta Details →	DSM 14:25 → ATL 17:38DL 2094	3h 22m Atlanta	ATL 21:00 → LGA 23:24DL 520	7h 59m	100%	88%
Delta Details →	DSM 05:41 → ATL 08:48DL 2727	3h 42m Atlanta	ATL 12:30 → LGA 14:50DL 525	8h 09m	98%	88%
Delta Details →	DSM 07:03 → MSP 08:19DL 5402 · flown by Endeavor	1h 46m Minneapolis	MSP 10:05 → LGA 13:45DL 2764	5h 42m	95%	84%
Delta Details →	DSM 10:52 → MSP 12:07DL 4998 · flown by Endeavor	3h 23m Minneapolis	MSP 15:30 → LGA 19:18DL 2732	7h 26m	99%	84%
Delta Details →	DSM 05:54 → DTW 08:45DL 5414 · flown by Endeavor	3h 30m Detroit	DTW 12:15 → LGA 14:03DL 1669	7h 09m	99%	84%
Delta Details →	DSM 11:30 → ATL 14:43DL 1704	3h 17m Atlanta	ATL 18:00 → LGA 20:27DL 434	7h 57m	99%	81%
United Details →	DSM 07:57 → ORD 09:29UA 2668	2h 47m Chicago	ORD 12:16 → LGA 15:37UA 786	6h 40m	99%	78%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Tue, Oct 6 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON