Tuesday, October 6 · our forecast odds · issued Mon 1:00 PM ET · 4 nonstops

Tomorrow looks like a normal day here: all 4 nonstops are 9–11% likely to arrive 15+ min late.

Safest bet that day DL 5490 DSM 14:43 → MSP 16:04 · 9% chance 15+ min late · usually 76% on time Riskiest DL 5020 DSM 17:46 → MSP 19:00 · 11% chance 15+ min late · usually 74% on time

Against a calm day 9% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 8% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop on Tue, Oct 6

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


DL 5490 Delta flown by Endeavor Flight history →	DSM 14:43	MSP 16:04	9%	4%	0.7%	76%
DL 4998 Delta flown by Endeavor Flight history →	DSM 10:52	MSP 12:06	9%	3%	0.7%	86%
DL 5402 Delta flown by Endeavor Flight history →	DSM 07:03	MSP 08:18	9%	3%	0.7%	85%
DL 5020 Delta flown by Endeavor Flight history →	DSM 17:46	MSP 19:00	11%	3%	0.7%	74%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Tue, Oct 6 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON