Tuesday, October 6 · our forecast odds · issued Mon 7:00 AM ET · 11 nonstops

Tomorrow: AA 4383 at 07:06 is the safest bet, 6% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 16–20%.

Safest bet that day AA 4383 DSM 07:06 → ORD 08:54 · 6% chance 15+ min late · usually 100% on time Riskiest UA 2770 DSM 18:41 → ORD 20:11 · 20% chance 15+ min late

Against a calm day 13% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 12% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop on Tue, Oct 6

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


AA 4383 American flown by Republic Flight history →	DSM 07:06	ORD 08:54	6%	2%	0.6%	100%
OO 6024 SkyWest	DSM 06:15	ORD 07:50	8%	4%	0.7%	no record
UA 2668 United Flight history →	DSM 07:40	ORD 09:12	8%	3%	0.5%	85%
UA 2769 United	DSM 11:12	ORD 12:40	10%	4%	0.5%	no record
OO 4955 SkyWest	DSM 10:27	ORD 12:01	11%	5%	0.7%	no record
YX 4769 Republic	DSM 17:48	ORD 19:25	16%	4%	0.7%	no record
OO 6040 SkyWest	DSM 13:12	ORD 14:39	16%	6%	0.7%	no record
OO 4928 SkyWest	DSM 19:37	ORD 21:09	16%	7%	0.7%	no record
UA 312 United Flight history →	DSM 15:26	ORD 16:50	17%	5%	0.6%	73%
OO 4933 SkyWest	DSM 14:39	ORD 16:07	19%	6%	0.7%	no record
UA 2770 United	DSM 18:41	ORD 20:11	20%	5%	0.6%	no record

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Tue, Oct 6 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON