Tuesday, October 6 · our forecast odds · issued Mon 2:00 PM ET · 6 nonstops

Tomorrow looks like a normal day here: all 6 nonstops are 8–13% likely to arrive 15+ min late.

Safest bet that day 9E 5385 DTW 15:02 → ALB 16:40 · 8% chance 15+ min late Riskiest DL 2660 DTW 21:45 → ALB 23:21 · 13% chance 15+ min late · usually 73% on time

Against a calm day 10% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 11% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop on Tue, Oct 6

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


9E 5385 Endeavor	DTW 15:02	ALB 16:40	8%	2%	0.7%	no record
DL 3809 Delta flown by SkyWest Flight history →	DTW 14:47	ALB 16:32	8%	3%	0.5%	81%
DL 3784 Delta flown by SkyWest Flight history →	DTW 07:24	ALB 09:05	9%	4%	0.6%	93%
DL 3810 Delta flown by SkyWest Flight history →	DTW 10:41	ALB 12:27	9%	3%	0.5%	84%
OO 3778 SkyWest	DTW 10:18	ALB 11:59	10%	4%	0.5%	no record
DL 2660 Delta Flight history →	DTW 21:45	ALB 23:21	13%	3%	0.6%	73%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Tue, Oct 6 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON