Today: only flights still to leave (it’s 1:52 pm at Detroit)

Tuesday, October 6 · our forecast odds · issued Tue 12:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Today: United via Denver, leaving 15:32, is the safest bet: 79% chance of reaching Anchorage on time; the tightest one-ticket connections make it only 72% of the time.

Best connections today, one ticket

Ranked by chance you reach Anchorage on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Anchorage is 4 h behind Detroit). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


United Details →	DTW 15:32 → DEN 16:45UA 302	2h 15m Denver	DEN 19:00 → ANC 22:46UA 280	11h 14m	96%	79%
Alaska Details →	DTW 17:58 → SEA 19:41AS 313	3h 09m Seattle	SEA 22:50 → ANC 01:35 +1AS 703	11h 37m	100%	76%
Delta Details →	DTW 16:46 → SEA 18:42DL 944	2h 59m Seattle	SEA 21:41 → ANC 00:33 +1DL 2367	11h 47m	99%	74%
United Details →	DTW 14:10 → ORD 14:47UA 5381 · flown by SkyWest	1h 23m Chicago	ORD 16:10 → ANC 19:54UA 841	9h 44m	80%	65%
Tight connection: often missed
Delta Details →	DTW 16:20 → MSP 17:12DL 2203	58m Minneapolis	MSP 18:10 → ANC 21:00DL 377	8h 40m	72%	60%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Tue, Oct 6 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON