Tuesday, October 6 · our forecast odds · issued Mon 12:00 PM ET · 4 nonstops

Tomorrow looks like a normal day here: all 4 nonstops are 7–10% likely to arrive 15+ min late.

Safest bet that day DL 2859 DTW 07:05 → BDL 08:48 · 7% chance 15+ min late · usually 95% on time Riskiest DL 2989 DTW 21:30 → BDL 23:14 · 10% chance 15+ min late · usually 78% on time

Against a calm day 9% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 9% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop on Tue, Oct 6

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


DL 2859 Delta Flight history →	DTW 07:05	BDL 08:48	7%	2%	0.6%	95%
DL 2163 Delta Flight history →	DTW 10:30	BDL 12:13	8%	2%	0.5%	88%
DL 2814 Delta Flight history →	DTW 14:35	BDL 16:18	9%	3%	0.5%	87%
DL 2989 Delta Flight history →	DTW 21:30	BDL 23:14	10%	3%	0.5%	78%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Tue, Oct 6 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON