Tuesday, October 6 · our forecast odds · issued Mon 1:00 PM ET · 4 nonstops

Tomorrow looks like a normal day here: all 4 nonstops are 7–12% likely to arrive 15+ min late.

Safest bet that day 9E 5502 DTW 08:40 → BHM 09:42 · 7% chance 15+ min late Riskiest DL 3685 DTW 08:30 → BHM 09:33 · 12% chance 15+ min late · usually 83% on time

Against a calm day 9% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 8% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop on Tue, Oct 6

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


9E 5502 Endeavor	DTW 08:40	BHM 09:42	7%	2%	0.7%	no record
DL 3145 Delta Flight history →	DTW 19:45	BHM 20:39	9%	2%	0.6%	75%
DL 4647 Delta flown by Endeavor Flight history →	DTW 16:18	BHM 17:12	9%	2%	0.7%	82%
DL 3685 Delta flown by SkyWest Flight history →	DTW 08:30	BHM 09:33	12%	4%	0.5%	83%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Tue, Oct 6 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON