Tuesday, October 6 · our forecast odds · issued Mon 2:00 PM ET · 7 nonstops

Tomorrow: WN 1839 at 06:10 is the safest bet, 3% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 10–14%.

Safest bet that day WN 1839 DTW 06:10 → BNA 06:54 · 3% chance 15+ min late Riskiest WN 1280 DTW 19:00 → BNA 19:33 · 14% chance 15+ min late

Against a calm day 8% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 8% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop on Tue, Oct 6

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


WN 1839 Southwest	DTW 06:10	BNA 06:54	3%	1%	0.5%	no record
WN 1717 Southwest	DTW 05:49	BNA 06:20	4%	1%	0.5%	no record
DL 2682 Delta Flight history →	DTW 08:30	BNA 09:11	8%	2%	0.5%	89%
DL 1557 Delta Flight history →	DTW 12:25	BNA 13:03	8%	2%	0.5%	89%
DL 2316 Delta Flight history →	DTW 16:01	BNA 16:40	10%	2%	0.5%	72%
DL 2126 Delta Flight history →	DTW 21:35	BNA 22:15	11%	2%	0.5%	75%
WN 1280 Southwest	DTW 19:00	BNA 19:33	14%	3%	0.5%	no record

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Tue, Oct 6 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON