Tuesday, October 6 · our forecast odds · issued Sun 3:00 PM ET · 6 nonstops

Tue, Oct 6 looks like a normal day here: all 6 nonstops are 2–8% likely to arrive 15+ min late.

Safest bet that day WN 1722 DTW 05:26 → BWI 06:56 · 2% chance 15+ min late Riskiest DL 2715 DTW 19:58 → BWI 21:39 · 8% chance 15+ min late · usually 78% on time

Against a calm day 5% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 6% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop on Tue, Oct 6

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


WN 1722 Southwest	DTW 05:26	BWI 06:56	2%	1%	0.5%	no record
DL 2341 Delta Flight history →	DTW 07:10	BWI 08:44	5%	2%	0.5%	95%
DL 1546 Delta Flight history →	DTW 10:15	BWI 11:47	5%	2%	0.5%	86%
DL 2480 Delta Flight history →	DTW 15:05	BWI 16:41	6%	2%	0.5%	81%
WN 4571 Southwest	DTW 14:53	BWI 16:24	7%	2%	0.5%	no record
DL 2715 Delta Flight history →	DTW 19:58	BWI 21:39	8%	3%	0.6%	78%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Tue, Oct 6 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON