Tuesday, October 6 · our forecast odds · issued Mon 12:00 AM ET · 4 nonstops

Tomorrow looks like a normal day here: all 2 nonstops are 6–7% likely to arrive 15+ min late.

Safest bet that day OO 3931 DTW 22:51 → CLE 00:04 · 6% chance 15+ min late Riskiest OO 3924 DTW 14:13 → CLE 15:12 · 7% chance 15+ min late

Against a calm day 7% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 7% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop on Tue, Oct 6

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort. Dimmed: airlines we don’t forecast yet, shown with their 12-month record if they usually fly that weekday.


OO 3931 SkyWest	DTW 22:51	CLE 00:04	6%	2%	0.5%	no record
OO 3924 SkyWest	DTW 14:13	CLE 15:12	7%	3%	0.5%	no record
DL 5392 Delta flown by Endeavor no forecast: 12-month record	DTW 08:35	CLE 09:37	16%	7%	0.0%	84%
DL 4954 Delta flown by Endeavor no forecast: 12-month record	DTW 17:42	CLE 18:46	33%	16%	0.8%	67%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Tue, Oct 6 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON