Tuesday, October 6 · our forecast odds · issued Sun 4:00 PM ET · 8 nonstops

Tue, Oct 6 looks like a normal day here: all 8 nonstops are 5–7% likely to arrive 15+ min late.

Safest bet that day DL 2684 DTW 10:37 → CLT 12:24 · 5% chance 15+ min late · usually 85% on time Riskiest AA 1683 DTW 14:48 → CLT 16:39 · 7% chance 15+ min late · usually 83% on time

Against a calm day 6% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 5% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop on Tue, Oct 6

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


DL 2684 Delta Flight history →	DTW 10:37	CLT 12:24	5%	1%	0.5%	85%
DL 2481 Delta Flight history →	DTW 07:05	CLT 08:52	5%	2%	0.5%	87%
DL 1429 Delta Flight history →	DTW 14:05	CLT 15:55	5%	2%	0.5%	85%
AA 1439 American Flight history →	DTW 07:27	CLT 09:29	6%	2%	0.6%	94%
AA 2582 American Flight history →	DTW 10:45	CLT 12:31	6%	2%	0.6%	90%
AA 387 American Flight history →	DTW 06:00	CLT 07:51	6%	3%	0.6%	92%
DL 2352 Delta Flight history →	DTW 20:05	CLT 21:57	7%	2%	0.5%	74%
AA 1683 American Flight history →	DTW 14:48	CLT 16:39	7%	2%	0.6%	83%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Tue, Oct 6 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON