Tuesday, October 6 · our forecast odds · issued Mon 5:00 AM ET · 6 nonstops

Tomorrow looks like a normal day here: all 6 nonstops are 4–13% likely to arrive 15+ min late.

Safest bet that day DL 5810 DTW 10:15 → CMH 11:23 · 4% chance 15+ min late · usually 94% on time Riskiest OO 3885 DTW 08:41 → CMH 09:49 · 13% chance 15+ min late

Against a calm day 7% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 6% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop on Tue, Oct 6

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


DL 5810 Delta flown by Republic Flight history →	DTW 10:15	CMH 11:23	4%	2%	0.5%	94%
DL 5774 Delta flown by Republic Flight history →	DTW 12:20	CMH 13:27	5%	2%	0.5%	90%
DL 5838 Delta flown by Republic Flight history →	DTW 19:54	CMH 21:02	5%	2%	0.5%	82%
DL 5634 Delta flown by Republic Flight history →	DTW 22:50	CMH 23:56	5%	2%	0.5%	90%
OO 3867 SkyWest	DTW 16:45	CMH 17:55	9%	3%	0.6%	no record
OO 3885 SkyWest	DTW 08:41	CMH 09:49	13%	3%	0.6%	no record

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Tue, Oct 6 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON