Tuesday, October 6 · our forecast odds · issued Mon 12:00 PM ET · 6 nonstops

Tomorrow looks like a normal day here: all 6 nonstops are 6–8% likely to arrive 15+ min late.

Safest bet that day DL 5446 DTW 13:49 → CVG 15:07 · 6% chance 15+ min late · usually 83% on time Riskiest DL 5478 DTW 21:36 → CVG 22:59 · 8% chance 15+ min late · usually 75% on time

Against a calm day 7% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 7% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop on Tue, Oct 6

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


DL 5446 Delta flown by Endeavor Flight history →	DTW 13:49	CVG 15:07	6%	2%	0.7%	83%
DL 5257 Delta flown by Endeavor Flight history →	DTW 12:27	CVG 13:44	7%	2%	0.7%	80%
DL 5259 Delta flown by Endeavor Flight history →	DTW 08:41	CVG 09:59	7%	2%	0.7%	84%
DL 5060 Delta flown by Endeavor Flight history →	DTW 18:09	CVG 19:29	7%	2%	0.7%	76%
DL 5215 Delta flown by Endeavor Flight history →	DTW 18:17	CVG 19:36	7%	2%	0.7%	67%
DL 5478 Delta flown by Endeavor Flight history →	DTW 21:36	CVG 22:59	8%	2%	0.7%	75%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Tue, Oct 6 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON