Tuesday, October 6 · our forecast odds · issued Sun 2:00 PM ET · 8 nonstops

Tue, Oct 6 looks like a normal day here: all 8 nonstops are 4–13% likely to arrive 15+ min late.

Safest bet that day YX 4707 DTW 06:05 → DCA 07:59 · 4% chance 15+ min late Riskiest DL 2030 DTW 17:18 → DCA 18:59 · 13% chance 15+ min late · usually 59% on time

Against a calm day 9% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 9% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop on Tue, Oct 6

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


YX 4707 Republic	DTW 06:05	DCA 07:59	4%	2%	0.6%	no record
DL 1558 Delta Flight history →	DTW 07:05	DCA 08:40	6%	2%	0.6%	81%
DL 2476 Delta Flight history →	DTW 10:00	DCA 11:28	7%	2%	0.5%	87%
AA 5660 American flown by PSA Flight history →	DTW 09:45	DCA 11:18	7%	3%	0.8%	80%
YX 4382 Republic	DTW 17:22	DCA 19:16	8%	3%	0.6%	no record
DL 2073 Delta Flight history →	DTW 21:24	DCA 22:59	12%	4%	0.6%	70%
DL 1454 Delta Flight history →	DTW 14:55	DCA 16:34	13%	3%	0.5%	51%
DL 2030 Delta Flight history →	DTW 17:18	DCA 18:59	13%	3%	0.6%	59%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Tue, Oct 6 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON