Tuesday, October 6 · our forecast odds · issued Mon 12:00 AM ET · 9 nonstops

Tomorrow looks like a normal day here: all 9 nonstops are 3–11% likely to arrive 15+ min late.

Safest bet that day WN 4886 DTW 06:57 → DEN 07:56 · 3% chance 15+ min late Riskiest F9 2211 DTW 07:40 → DEN 08:54 · 11% chance 15+ min late · usually 85% on time

Against a calm day 7% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 7% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop on Tue, Oct 6

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


WN 4886 Southwest	DTW 06:57	DEN 07:56	3%	1%	0.5%	no record
DL 1113 Delta Flight history →	DTW 08:40	DEN 09:47	6%	1%	0.5%	87%
UA 2302 United Flight history →	DTW 09:01	DEN 10:20	6%	2%	0.5%	94%
F9 2801 Frontier	DTW 08:16	DEN 11:01	6%	3%	0.6%	no record
DL 1648 Delta Flight history →	DTW 12:42	DEN 13:45	7%	2%	0.5%	85%
WN 267 Southwest	DTW 13:54	DEN 14:46	8%	1%	0.4%	no record
UA 302 United Flight history →	DTW 15:32	DEN 16:45	9%	2%	0.5%	83%
DL 2431 Delta Flight history →	DTW 16:21	DEN 17:27	11%	2%	0.5%	72%
F9 2211 Frontier Flight history →	DTW 07:40	DEN 08:54	11%	2%	0.6%	85%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Tue, Oct 6 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON