Tuesday, October 6 · our forecast odds · issued Sun 11:00 AM ET · 10 nonstops

Tue, Oct 6 looks like a normal day here: all 10 nonstops are 6–13% likely to arrive 15+ min late.

Safest bet that day AA 482 DTW 07:58 → DFW 09:54 · 6% chance 15+ min late · usually 88% on time Riskiest F9 3175 DTW 21:03 → DFW 22:57 · 13% chance 15+ min late · usually 54% on time

Against a calm day 9% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 10% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop on Tue, Oct 6

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


AA 482 American Flight history →	DTW 07:58	DFW 09:54	6%	2%	0.6%	88%
DL 1041 Delta Flight history →	DTW 12:45	DFW 14:32	7%	2%	0.5%	86%
DL 2746 Delta Flight history →	DTW 08:35	DFW 10:24	8%	2%	0.5%	81%
AA 3101 American Flight history →	DTW 11:37	DFW 13:14	8%	3%	0.6%	89%
AA 1240 American	DTW 05:49	DFW 07:36	8%	2%	0.7%	no record
DL 1207 Delta Flight history →	DTW 20:46	DFW 22:32	8%	3%	0.5%	74%
F9 3177 Frontier Flight history →	DTW 10:28	DFW 12:27	11%	5%	0.7%	79%
AA 3310 American Flight history →	DTW 17:00	DFW 18:42	11%	3%	0.6%	67%
DL 1441 Delta	DTW 15:52	DFW 17:27	12%	3%	0.5%	no record
F9 3175 Frontier Flight history →	DTW 21:03	DFW 22:57	13%	6%	0.8%	54%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Tue, Oct 6 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON