Tuesday, October 6 · our forecast odds · issued Mon 12:00 AM ET · 11 nonstops

Tomorrow: UA 3652 at 06:00 is the safest bet, 3% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 9–18%.

Safest bet that day UA 3652 DTW 06:00 → EWR 07:45 · 3% chance 15+ min late · usually 88% on time Riskiest UA 1635 DTW 19:02 → EWR 20:47 · 18% chance 15+ min late

Against a calm day 9% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 7% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop on Tue, Oct 6

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


UA 3652 United flown by Republic Flight history →	DTW 06:00	EWR 07:45	3%	2%	0.7%	88%
UA 3706 United flown by Republic Flight history →	DTW 11:11	EWR 13:06	5%	2%	0.7%	88%
DL 2566 Delta Flight history →	DTW 07:15	EWR 08:58	5%	2%	0.7%	90%
DL 2577 Delta Flight history →	DTW 10:15	EWR 11:56	6%	2%	0.7%	82%
YX 3681 Republic	DTW 12:46	EWR 14:43	6%	2%	0.7%	no record
YX 3433 Republic	DTW 15:02	EWR 16:56	8%	2%	0.7%	no record
DL 2609 Delta Flight history →	DTW 21:40	EWR 23:25	9%	3%	0.7%	71%
YX 3692 Republic	DTW 16:28	EWR 18:24	10%	3%	0.7%	no record
DL 2573 Delta Flight history →	DTW 14:10	EWR 15:54	11%	3%	0.7%	71%
DL 2567 Delta Flight history →	DTW 17:44	EWR 19:30	16%	4%	0.7%	53%
UA 1635 United	DTW 19:02	EWR 20:47	18%	5%	0.6%	no record

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Tue, Oct 6 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON