Tuesday, October 6 · our forecast odds · issued Sun 9:00 PM ET · 7 nonstops

Tue, Oct 6: DL 655 at 07:10 is the safest bet, 8% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 11–22%.

Safest bet that day DL 655 DTW 07:10 → FLL 10:10 · 8% chance 15+ min late · usually 86% on time Riskiest B6 789 DTW 16:10 → FLL 19:10 · 22% chance 15+ min late · usually 65% on time

Against a calm day 13% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 9% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop on Tue, Oct 6

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


DL 655 Delta Flight history →	DTW 07:10	FLL 10:10	8%	1%	0.7%	86%
B6 2489 JetBlue Flight history →	DTW 06:00	FLL 09:00	8%	2%	0.8%	74%
DL 1294 Delta Flight history →	DTW 12:30	FLL 15:34	9%	2%	0.7%	81%
DL 2296 Delta Flight history →	DTW 20:44	FLL 23:42	11%	3%	0.7%	61%
DL 1037 Delta Flight history →	DTW 15:56	FLL 19:00	14%	3%	0.7%	66%
F9 2007 Frontier Flight history →	DTW 16:25	FLL 19:42	21%	8%	1.8%	57%
B6 789 JetBlue Flight history →	DTW 16:10	FLL 19:10	22%	6%	0.9%	65%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Tue, Oct 6 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON