Tuesday, October 6 · our forecast odds · issued Mon 9:00 AM ET · 8 nonstops

Tomorrow looks like a normal day here: all 4 nonstops are 3–10% likely to arrive 15+ min late.

Safest bet that day YX 5846 DTW 14:00 → GRR 15:11 · 3% chance 15+ min late Riskiest DL 3500 DTW 08:50 → GRR 09:54 · 10% chance 15+ min late · usually 74% on time

Against a calm day 6% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 6% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop on Tue, Oct 6

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort. Dimmed: airlines we don’t forecast yet, shown with their 12-month record if they usually fly that weekday.


YX 5846 Republic	DTW 14:00	GRR 15:11	3%	2%	0.5%	no record
YX 5847 Republic	DTW 17:56	GRR 19:04	3%	3%	0.6%	no record
OO 3928 SkyWest	DTW 19:55	GRR 21:05	6%	3%	0.6%	no record
DL 3500 Delta flown by SkyWest Flight history →	DTW 08:50	GRR 09:54	10%	3%	0.5%	74%
DL 4880 Delta flown by Endeavor no forecast: 12-month record	DTW 22:55	GRR 23:57	21%	9%	2.8%	79%
DL 5390 Delta flown by Endeavor no forecast: 12-month record	DTW 12:56	GRR 13:55	31%	13%	0.0%	69%
DL 5473 Delta flown by Endeavor no forecast: 12-month record	DTW 10:21	GRR 11:21	31%	22%	1.9%	69%
DL 5511 Delta flown by Endeavor no forecast: 12-month record	DTW 16:11	GRR 17:14	42%	17%	2.0%	58%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Tue, Oct 6 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON