Tuesday, October 6 · our forecast odds · issued Mon 2:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Tomorrow looks like a normal day here: all 2 nonstops are 8% likely to arrive 15+ min late.

Nonstops that day


DL 5512 Delta flown by Endeavor Flight history →	DTW 15:45	GSO 17:29	8%	2%	0.7%	65%
DL 5407 Delta flown by Endeavor Flight history →	DTW 20:35	GSO 22:17	8%	2%	0.7%	78%

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Greensboro on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival. Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


Delta Details →	DTW 05:17 → ATL 07:10DL 2375	3h 05m Atlanta	ATL 10:15 → GSO 11:34DL 3052	6h 17m	99%	92%
Delta Details →	DTW 08:25 → ATL 10:20DL 1653	3h 55m Atlanta	ATL 14:15 → GSO 15:30DL 2539	7h 05m	100%	91%
Delta Details →	DTW 07:20 → ATL 09:18DL 965	3h 31m Atlanta	ATL 12:49 → GSO 14:04DL 3060	6h 44m	99%	90%
United Details →	DTW 11:16 → EWR 13:00UA 3706 · flown by Republic	3h 26m Newark	EWR 16:26 → GSO 18:06UA 3576 · flown by Republic	6h 50m	99%	89%
Delta Details →	DTW 07:00 → LGA 08:47DL 1487	3h 25m New York	LGA 12:12 → GSO 13:50DL 5132 · flown by Endeavor	6h 50m	99%	89%
Delta Details →	DTW 16:50 → ATL 18:55DL 1467	3h 45m Atlanta	ATL 22:40 → GSO 23:59DL 3005	7h 09m	99%	86%
American Details →	DTW 13:30 → ORD 13:50AA 3977 · flown by Envoy	1h 27m Chicago	ORD 15:17 → GSO 18:17AA 4118 · flown by Envoy	4h 47m	93%	85%
American Details →	DTW 16:23 → ORD 16:45AA 3980 · flown by Envoy	1h 55m Chicago	ORD 18:40 → GSO 21:47AA 3648 · flown by Envoy	5h 24m	94%	84%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Tue, Oct 6 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON