Tuesday, October 6 · our forecast odds · issued Mon 5:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Tomorrow looks like a normal day here: all 2 nonstops are 6–7% likely to arrive 15+ min late.

Nonstops that day


DL 4658 Delta flown by Endeavor Flight history →	DTW 13:57	HPN 15:52	6%	3%	0.7%	69%
DL 4645 Delta flown by Endeavor Flight history →	DTW 09:55	HPN 11:45	7%	2%	0.7%	73%

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach White Plains on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival. Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


American Details →	DTW 08:26 → ORD 09:08AA 4013 · flown by Envoy	3h 33m Chicago	ORD 12:41 → HPN 15:59AA 4200 · flown by Envoy	7h 33m	100%	91%
Delta Details →	DTW 09:00 → MSP 09:54DL 2258	3h 05m Minneapolis	MSP 12:59 → HPN 16:46DL 4680 · flown by Endeavor	7h 46m	100%	90%
Delta Details →	DTW 14:59 → ATL 17:03DL 1983	2h 56m Atlanta	ATL 19:59 → HPN 22:25DL 1616	7h 26m	100%	89%
Delta Details →	DTW 06:17 → ATL 08:11DL 1611	3h 50m Atlanta	ATL 12:01 → HPN 14:33DL 5435 · flown by Endeavor	8h 16m	99%	88%
Delta Details →	DTW 10:25 → ATL 12:19DL 2856	3h 04m Atlanta	ATL 15:23 → HPN 17:54DL 5013 · flown by Endeavor	7h 29m	99%	87%
Delta Details →	DTW 05:17 → ATL 07:10DL 2375	2h 17m Atlanta	ATL 09:27 → HPN 11:55DL 2973	6h 38m	98%	86%
American Details →	DTW 06:00 → CLT 07:51AA 387	3h 15m Charlotte	CLT 11:06 → HPN 13:13AA 5180 · flown by PSA	7h 13m	97%	86%
American Details →	DTW 11:00 → CLT 12:52AA 2582	1h 57m Charlotte	CLT 14:49 → HPN 16:56AA 5606 · flown by PSA	5h 56m	98%	82%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Tue, Oct 6 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON