Tuesday, October 6 · our forecast odds · issued Sun 2:00 PM ET · 7 nonstops

Tue, Oct 6 looks like a normal day here: all 5 nonstops are 3–9% likely to arrive 15+ min late.

Safest bet that day UA 1796 DTW 05:55 → IAD 07:39 · 3% chance 15+ min late Riskiest DL 3988 DTW 21:38 → IAD 23:13 · 9% chance 15+ min late · usually 65% on time

Against a calm day 6% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 6% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop on Tue, Oct 6

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort. Dimmed: airlines we don’t forecast yet, shown with their 12-month record if they usually fly that weekday.


UA 1796 United	DTW 05:55	IAD 07:39	3%	2%	0.5%	no record
YX 3420 Republic	DTW 10:11	IAD 11:58	5%	2%	0.5%	no record
DL 2884 Delta Flight history →	DTW 08:50	IAD 10:23	5%	3%	0.6%	90%
DL 1787 Delta Flight history →	DTW 15:08	IAD 16:41	8%	3%	0.6%	86%
DL 3988 Delta flown by SkyWest Flight history →	DTW 21:38	IAD 23:13	9%	4%	0.5%	65%
UA 6190 United flown by Mesa no forecast: 12-month record	DTW 14:35	IAD 16:11	17%	7%	0.3%	83%
UA 6362 United flown by Mesa no forecast: 12-month record	DTW 19:45	IAD 21:20	22%	10%	3.9%	78%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Tue, Oct 6 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON