Tuesday, October 6 · our forecast odds · issued Mon 4:00 AM ET · 8 nonstops

Tomorrow: UA 234 at 06:10 is the safest bet, 8% chance of being 15+ min late; the others run 9–19%.

Safest bet that day UA 234 DTW 06:10 → IAH 08:27 · 8% chance 15+ min late Riskiest F9 1957 DTW 13:29 → IAH 14:53 · 19% chance 15+ min late · usually 66% on time

Against a calm day 12% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 10% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop on Tue, Oct 6

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort. Dimmed: airlines we don’t forecast yet, shown with their 12-month record if they usually fly that weekday.


UA 234 United	DTW 06:10	IAH 08:27	8%	2%	0.6%	no record
DL 1307 Delta Flight history →	DTW 12:31	IAH 14:18	9%	2%	0.6%	86%
DL 1043 Delta Flight history →	DTW 08:40	IAH 10:37	9%	2%	0.6%	84%
DL 1633 Delta Flight history →	DTW 20:25	IAH 22:24	11%	2%	0.6%	81%
DL 1718 Delta Flight history →	DTW 15:55	IAH 17:37	13%	2%	0.6%	68%
F9 1957 Frontier Flight history →	DTW 13:29	IAH 14:53	19%	5%	0.7%	66%
UA 6251 United flown by Mesa no forecast: 12-month record	DTW 10:55	IAH 12:57	13%	4%	0.4%	87%
UA 4032 United flown by Mesa no forecast: 12-month record	DTW 18:40	IAH 20:50	23%	5%	0.0%	77%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Tue, Oct 6 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON