Tuesday, October 6 · our forecast odds · issued Mon 4:00 PM ET · 10 nonstops

Tomorrow looks like a normal day here: all 10 nonstops are 4–11% likely to arrive 15+ min late.

Safest bet that day 9E 5167 DTW 08:34 → IND 09:53 · 4% chance 15+ min late Riskiest OO 3966 DTW 11:19 → IND 12:32 · 11% chance 15+ min late

Against a calm day 6% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 6% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop on Tue, Oct 6

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


9E 5167 Endeavor	DTW 08:34	IND 09:53	4%	2%	0.6%	no record
9E 5147 Endeavor	DTW 08:49	IND 10:09	5%	2%	0.6%	no record
9E 4668 Endeavor	DTW 10:20	IND 11:39	5%	2%	0.6%	no record
YX 5828 Republic	DTW 16:00	IND 17:28	5%	2%	0.6%	no record
YX 5639 Republic	DTW 16:03	IND 17:24	5%	2%	0.6%	no record
9E 4641 Endeavor	DTW 13:07	IND 14:25	5%	2%	0.6%	no record
9E 5405 Endeavor	DTW 12:04	IND 13:21	6%	2%	0.6%	no record
9E 5341 Endeavor	DTW 17:33	IND 18:52	6%	2%	0.6%	no record
DL 4898 Delta flown by Endeavor Flight history →	DTW 20:06	IND 21:25	7%	2%	0.7%	66%
OO 3966 SkyWest	DTW 11:19	IND 12:32	11%	3%	0.5%	no record

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Tue, Oct 6 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON