Tuesday, October 6 · our forecast odds · issued Sun 10:00 PM ET · 5 nonstops

Tue, Oct 6 looks like a normal day here: all 5 nonstops are 6–8% likely to arrive 15+ min late.

Safest bet that day WN 4079 DTW 11:43 → LAS 12:56 · 6% chance 15+ min late Riskiest DL 916 DTW 19:57 → LAS 21:13 · 8% chance 15+ min late · usually 72% on time

Against a calm day 7% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 7% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop on Tue, Oct 6

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


WN 4079 Southwest	DTW 11:43	LAS 12:56	6%	1%	0.4%	no record
DL 334 Delta Flight history →	DTW 08:59	LAS 10:12	6%	2%	0.6%	82%
DL 766 Delta Flight history →	DTW 16:35	LAS 17:51	7%	2%	0.6%	73%
DL 421 Delta Flight history →	DTW 12:15	LAS 13:28	7%	2%	0.6%	76%
DL 916 Delta Flight history →	DTW 19:57	LAS 21:13	8%	3%	0.6%	72%

Alternatives with one stop that day

All connections →


Delta Details →	DTW 20:06 → MSP 21:00DL 1303	47m Minneapolis	MSP 21:47 → LAS 23:10DL 1442	6h 04m	85%	77%
American Details →	DTW 16:23 → ORD 16:45AA 3980 · flown by Envoy	46m Chicago	ORD 17:31 → LAS 19:29AA 3292	6h 06m	84%	67%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Tue, Oct 6 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON