Tuesday, October 6 · our forecast odds · issued Mon 12:00 AM ET · 11 nonstops

Tomorrow looks like a normal day here: all 11 nonstops are 6–11% likely to arrive 15+ min late.

Safest bet that day AA 4477 DTW 06:00 → LGA 07:47 · 6% chance 15+ min late · usually 87% on time Riskiest DL 2604 DTW 17:59 → LGA 19:50 · 11% chance 15+ min late · usually 61% on time

Against a calm day 8% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 7% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop on Tue, Oct 6

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


AA 4477 American flown by Republic Flight history →	DTW 06:00	LGA 07:47	6%	2%	0.7%	87%
YX 4376 Republic	DTW 09:19	LGA 11:16	6%	2%	0.6%	no record
DL 1487 Delta Flight history →	DTW 07:00	LGA 08:47	7%	2%	0.7%	90%
AA 4339 American flown by Republic Flight history →	DTW 13:56	LGA 16:01	7%	3%	0.7%	56%
DL 2603 Delta Flight history →	DTW 21:50	LGA 23:40	8%	2%	0.7%	74%
DL 2589 Delta Flight history →	DTW 10:05	LGA 11:50	8%	2%	0.7%	86%
DL 1669 Delta Flight history →	DTW 12:15	LGA 14:03	9%	2%	0.6%	76%
DL 2602 Delta Flight history →	DTW 14:02	LGA 15:53	9%	3%	0.7%	76%
DL 1791 Delta	DTW 08:50	LGA 10:33	10%	2%	0.7%	no record
AA 4414 American flown by Republic Flight history →	DTW 19:29	LGA 21:26	10%	3%	0.7%	68%
DL 2604 Delta Flight history →	DTW 17:59	LGA 19:50	11%	4%	0.7%	61%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Tue, Oct 6 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON