Tuesday, October 6 · our forecast odds · issued Sun 4:00 PM ET · 7 nonstops

Tue, Oct 6: DL 1455 at 08:45 is the safest bet, 7% chance of being 15+ min late; the others run 7–22%.

Safest bet that day DL 1455 DTW 08:45 → MCO 11:23 · 7% chance 15+ min late · usually 86% on time Riskiest DL 1274 DTW 18:20 → MCO 20:51 · 22% chance 15+ min late

Against a calm day 12% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 6% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop on Tue, Oct 6

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


DL 1455 Delta Flight history →	DTW 08:45	MCO 11:23	7%	2%	0.8%	86%
DL 2555 Delta Flight history →	DTW 07:05	MCO 09:40	7%	2%	1.0%	91%
DL 1123 Delta Flight history →	DTW 12:27	MCO 15:06	8%	5%	1.3%	63%
F9 4286 Frontier Flight history →	DTW 12:33	MCO 15:16	9%	5%	2.1%	81%
DL 1747 Delta Flight history →	DTW 10:35	MCO 13:08	11%	3%	1.0%	74%
DL 337 Delta Flight history →	DTW 14:00	MCO 16:46	18%	7%	1.8%	76%
DL 1274 Delta	DTW 18:20	MCO 20:51	22%	8%	1.6%	no record

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Tue, Oct 6 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON