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Tuesday, October 6 · our forecast odds · issued Mon 10:00 AM ET · connections flying that day

Tomorrow: no forecasts for this route’s flights; their 12-month records are below.

Nonstops that day

All 2 nonstops →
DL 5169 Delta flown by Endeavor no forecast: 12-month record DTW 21:38 MDT 23:10 30% 13% 1.8% 70%
DL 4891 Delta flown by Endeavor no forecast: 12-month record DTW 15:23 MDT 16:54 43% 13% 1.8% 57%

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Harrisburg on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival. Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.
AmericanDetails → DTW 06:01 → PHL 07:51AA 5414 · flown by PSA 1h 09m Philadelphia PHL 09:00 → MDT 10:08AA 6117 · flown by Piedmont 4h 07m 100% 90%
DeltaDetails → DTW 07:20 → ATL 09:18DL 965 2h 53m Atlanta ATL 12:11 → MDT 14:14DL 1354 6h 54m 99% 89%
DeltaDetails → DTW 05:17 → ATL 07:10DL 2375 1h 55m Atlanta ATL 09:05 → MDT 10:56DL 1248 5h 39m 98% 89%
DeltaDetails → DTW 16:50 → ATL 18:55DL 1467 3h 04m Atlanta ATL 21:59 → MDT 23:53DL 1283 7h 03m 99% 88%
DeltaDetails → DTW 10:25 → ATL 12:19DL 2856 3h 22m Atlanta ATL 15:41 → MDT 17:37DL 2857 7h 12m 99% 88%
AmericanDetails → DTW 06:00 → CLT 07:51AA 387 3h 29m Charlotte CLT 11:20 → MDT 13:12AA 6134 · flown by Piedmont 7h 12m 98% 84%
DeltaDetails → DTW 06:17 → ATL 08:11DL 1611 3h 04m Atlanta ATL 11:15 → MDT 13:17DL 4717 · flown by Endeavor 7h 00m 99% 80%
AmericanDetails → DTW 07:21 → CLT 09:15AA 1439 3h 57m Charlotte CLT 13:12 → MDT 15:00AA 5832 · flown by Piedmont 7h 39m 99% 78%
How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Tue, Oct 6 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON