Tuesday, October 6 · our forecast odds · issued Sun 2:00 PM ET · 6 nonstops

Tue, Oct 6 looks like a normal day here: all 3 nonstops are 6–14% likely to arrive 15+ min late.

Safest bet that day WN 1725 DTW 08:45 → MDW 09:08 · 6% chance 15+ min late Riskiest WN 3412 DTW 19:09 → MDW 19:22 · 14% chance 15+ min late

Against a calm day 10% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 9% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop on Tue, Oct 6

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort. Dimmed: airlines we don’t forecast yet, shown with their 12-month record if they usually fly that weekday.


WN 1725 Southwest	DTW 08:45	MDW 09:08	6%	1%	0.5%	no record
WN 1359 Southwest	DTW 12:50	MDW 13:00	9%	1%	0.5%	no record
WN 3412 Southwest	DTW 19:09	MDW 19:22	14%	2%	0.5%	no record
DL 4688 Delta flown by Endeavor no forecast: 12-month record	DTW 12:25	MDW 12:46	18%	8%	1.2%	82%
DL 4684 Delta flown by Endeavor no forecast: 12-month record	DTW 08:50	MDW 09:14	26%	3%	0.0%	74%
DL 4677 Delta flown by Endeavor no forecast: 12-month record	DTW 18:07	MDW 18:25	40%	24%	1.2%	60%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Tue, Oct 6 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON