Tuesday, October 6 · our forecast odds · issued Mon 4:00 PM ET · 4 nonstops

Tomorrow looks like a normal day here: all 4 nonstops are 6–10% likely to arrive 15+ min late.

Safest bet that day DL 1627 DTW 08:46 → MEM 09:46 · 6% chance 15+ min late Riskiest DL 1230 DTW 20:05 → MEM 21:01 · 10% chance 15+ min late · usually 79% on time

Against a calm day 8% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 8% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop on Tue, Oct 6

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


DL 1627 Delta	DTW 08:46	MEM 09:46	6%	1%	0.5%	no record
9E 5534 Endeavor	DTW 16:15	MEM 17:16	7%	2%	0.7%	no record
9E 5014 Endeavor	DTW 16:12	MEM 17:03	9%	2%	0.7%	no record
DL 1230 Delta Flight history →	DTW 20:05	MEM 21:01	10%	2%	0.5%	79%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Tue, Oct 6 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON